GE14: Strength of Political Parties

DAP has made most progress since 2008. It has a very strong support base amongst the Chinese and its winning of Penang has consolidated its appeal among the Chinese voters. Over the past 4 years, DAP has cleverly strategized its campaigns, has a sleek campaign machinery and probably the most tactical of all parties. If we study its campaigns, we will note that they are rather sophisticated – way ahead of other parties. Lim Guan Eng is a fairly good man to the Chinese voters. Regardless whether you like him or not, he is doing a fine job as the CM of Penang and that has won him many admirers. Unfortunately DAP has made little progress in attracting non-Chinese supporters. Despite the recruitment of a few high profile Malays, DAP is by and large, a Chinese party to the core. To the bulk of the Malays in the country, DAP equal to Lim Kit Siang equal to Chinese chauvinist – and it is going to take a lot of effort to wipe out that image. We can see that DAP is trying to rebrand but it will be hardwork.In the GE13, DAP won more seats (both state and Parliament) than it had before. UMNO. Surprise.......Of course if we have only been reading Malaysiakini and Chinese newspapers, we will find this hard to believe. UMNO has consolidated itself. Dato' Sri Najib is very popular among the people (if he keeps his other half at a distance, he will be even more popular). UMNO has a large grassroot network which is active on the ground. You may not hear very much about it – but UMNO Youth and the Wanita and Puteri folks are going good work on the ground. UMNO now has a lot more professionals. Irrespective of whether you like him or not, Khairy Jamaluddin is very smart and very articulate. If you watched the debate between him and Ambiga recently, to many non-partisan observers, Khairy won hands down. Najib is a smart cookie. Najib is head and shoulders above his predecessor. Many of his GTP and ETP are working – although his team could do better by communicating the results clearly. You might not see the benefits but folks in rural areas do. Abolishment of the ISA and a slew of other laws is a major breakthrough in terms of respecting human rights. Najib has made more progress on electoral reform than what was done by his predecessors over the past 25 years. All these have won him many admirers. UMNO of course carries a lot of baggage. The party still has many "half-brained porcupines" and "tortoise-heads". A lot of the older members are probably still living in the 1980’s. The past (and even present) cosy links between businesses and the party is a problem that UMNO has not yet managed to eradicate. It has an image of lethargy and corruption which will also take a long time to get over with. Its dominance within BN gives the impression that it is also a "bully". In the GE13, UMNO won more seats than it has now (at the expenses of PKR). With a bit of hard work and luck, it has managed to win back Kedah. PAS of course has a long history of grassroot activism and a formidable campaign/election machinery. The fact that it has held on to Kelantan so long is a testament of its strength. With the 2008 win of Kedah, PAS has also consolidated itself. Among the Pakatan partners, PAS probably has the best/biggest election machinery. Since 2008, PAS has been actively campaigning and exerting its influence in Kedah, Perak,Perlis, Negeri Sembilan, Johor and Terengganu. The party has a few smart young rookies but suffers "old" image problem. The prominence of Nik Aziz and Hadi gives the impression that it is a party of oldies – which it is not. Of course, its ultimate goal of establishing an Islamic state has never and will never go down well with a vast majority of Malaysians, Malay-muslims included. However by virtue of its loose partnership with DAP and PKR, PAS has somewhat put forward a more tolerant, liberal face. Whether it is sufficient to convince the non-Muslim voters remains to be seen in the next election. More importantly, it has to find replacements for Nik Aziz and Hadi who are now more than 300 years old. In the GE13 PAS more or less maintain what it has now. It seems ambitious in Johor but failed to win much in that state. It is completely lost in Sabah and Sarawak. PAS will be strong in Kelantan, Kedah and Terengganu – the three poorest states in Peninsular Malaysia. MCA. Very difficult to assess in the GE14. It goes without saying that DAP is now the biggest Chinese party in the country and MCA is struggling to find its footing. But not all is lost. MCA members have rallied around Chua Soi Lek (despite his “problems”) and Chua Soi Lek is seen as a firm leader. Chua Soi Lek has balls that his predecessors did not have. It has a large grassroot network and has been doing community work on the quiet. Despite what you may have read or heard, the Chinese have not totally abandoned the party. MCA has to get rid of the image that it is UMNO’s inferiority. MCA is of course struggling to disprove this perception. One of MCA’s advantages is that it, though its long association with UMNO, has a better understand of the Malay psyche and is generally seen by the Malays as less chauvinistic than DAP. MCA will worstly struggle in GE14. However, with UMNO’s resurgence, it should be able to maintain its existing seats and may be win a few more. MIC. The departure of Samy Vellu can only be good news to any party. MIC under Palanivel maintains a low profile. The party has been focussing most of its efforts amongst middle to lower income Indians and mostly outside Klang Valley. Some of its new leaders are very hardworking, smart and articulate. Kamalanathan, for example is a smart bloke who is articulate in Malay, English and Tamil. Najib has made numerous goodwill gestures towards the Indian community which should translate into votes for BN. With the departure of Samy Vellu, more Indian professionals have joined the party. MIC of course also suffers an image problem. It has not really produced many leaders who are capable of leading a multi-ethnic society. Many Indian professionals have shunned the party in the past. It has to do lot of work to modernize the party, to inject new blood and make itself relevant. For GE14, the good news for MIC is that the Indian voters are returning to BN. This is due to a combination of Najib’s gestures as well as MIC’s own effort. MIC should do better compared to its performance in GE13. PKR. PKR’s originally strength was that it is the only real Malaysian party with a multiracial leadership. It also had a leader, Anwar, who managed to bring PAS and DAP together. PKR now runs Selangor and Khalid is doing a fairly decent job. However, PKR is the most problematic party within Pakatan now. After flying high during GE12, PKR has basically gone downhill since. Seen as the weakest in the Pakatan coalition, it also had to endure a number of "frogs" that have switched allegiance. Through his own doing, Anwar has lost a fair bit of credibility. The sex tapes did not help. PKR’s own elections were in shambles – leading to senior members leaving the party. The image of Anwar, Azizah and Nurul at the head of the party also gives the impression that it is still a party for Anwar. PKR the biggest loser in GE13. Anwar cannot carry the party on his own anymore. PKR may just hold on to Selangor through the skin of its teeth in the next GE. Other Political Parties. As for PPP, KITA and other miscellaneous parties, they should seriously consider merging with one of the bigger parties.Ray of light is not seen at the end of the tunnel......!!!