14th General Election (2018) : How Will the Chinese Vote???

The improved Malay and Indian sentiments in favour of BN is obvious. The later by-election results, opinion surveys by several polling agencies and turnout at governments events speak for themselves. Prime Minister, Dato Sri Najib and BN definitely look more popular today compared with two years ago, which was already an improvement over the last election year in 2008. The current Indian voter sentiment favourable with their warm response to Najib’s initiatives. They respond positively to Najib’s visits and his recent initiatives to address grievances of the Indian community, in stark contrast to situations in 2008 when even Samy Vellu’s presence was unwelcome. It was in 2007/2008 period that the Hindraf protests and demonstrations reached the peak of its prominence and influence. Indian voter sentiment reached its bottom in the history of the country when BN barely obtained 15% of the Indian votes. By contrast, based on the latest quick opinion poll, Najib has 67% Indian voter support today. In the Peninsula, the Malays are the most steady in their support for BN. It reached the bottom at 50% in the 1999 General Election when Malays were very angry following the Anwar saga; in the 2008 General Election it was actually higher at 54%. These were the elections period when BN and UMNO were in disarray. Today, the table has turned, in particular for PAS which is now facing an identity crisis, and PKR which is turning further and further away from the Malay and Islamic heartland. In this scenario, it is not difficult to read how the Malays will vote in the coming 14th General Election. The Chinese, on the other hand, have not shown any perceptible shift in their sentiment for BN. It could be at the 30% level of the 2008 General Election, or worse still at 25% as in the recent Sarawak State Election. The quick opinion polls done by polling agencies also confirm the above. However, it does not necessarily mean a gone case for BN. Chinese voter sentiment is the most difficult to read as they do not normally show it openly. For of all the major races, they have the largest chunk of fence sitters who could change their support at the last minutes. During the 2008 General Election, BN did not expect a strong rebuff by the Chinese voters. Even during the 1999 General Election when the Malays deserted BN, the Chinese in a way actually helped to save the BN government from losing its 2/3 majority in Parliament. Yes, they helped Tun Dr Mahathir. Today, if they were given the same choice, nobody would believe that they will still back Tun Mahathir. Instead they would gladly dump him. Whatever issues trumpeted openly, the crux of the election issue, as always, in the coming 14th General Election actually arises from the racially polarising scenario of Malaysian society, as reflected in the recent 13th General Election. The Chinese are unhappy about what they perceive as unfair business and other opportunities against them. The Malays and Bumiputera counter that since as a group they are the poorest in the country, what is wrong if the government continues to give preference to them? Fortunately, for BN, Dato’ Sri Najib is at the helm, and he has done everything to please the Chinese community. Giving handouts and assistance to Chinese schools and Chinese associations is the best he could do, although there is still no visible impact. Even Mahathir has done his part to address the University quota system. As for the Indian community, Dato’ Sri Najib has focussed a lot of attentions to address the issues they brought up and gave specific assistance requested. In return, they appear to be grateful and BN apparently is regaining their trust. As for the Chinese, indeed they are a very difficult community to please. They are very business minded. They are unemotional but calculative, even treating a General Election like a business, in fact, in certain constituencies, like a gambling fiesta. Like in business, the Chinese don’t like to lose. You may ask; if so, why they voted for the opposition en bloc in the recent 13th General Election, although facing defeat. The only possible answer is that DAP managed to persuade them that the 13th General Election results would help Pakatan Pembangkang’s momentum to form the next Federal Government with DAP assuming the power behind the wheel pst-14th General Election. The Malays read the situation well. That was why BN obtained more than 65% support from the Malay community, followed by a still sizeable support of 72% by the Indians. Pakatan Pembangkang could only dream of such support in Peninsular Malaysia. With the above political scenario in the country, the Chinese are now in a real dilemma as to how to vote in the next 14th General Election. If they stretch their luck too far and vote for DAP or Pakatan Pembangkang en bloc, they will likely be unrepresented in the next government, thus isolating themselves into the lonely corner of Malaysian politics. In the above scenario, the government formed by BN is quite weak for the next five years. But the bigger risk is that ultra Malays may gain strength in UMNO in its attempt to get more support from Malays and Bumiputera. Given the environment of distrust that has developed recently, these people would have little sympathies on the plight of the Chinese , which could lead to a prolonged economic difficulties and racial intolerance. A stable government based on harmonious race relation is definitely a better option and is a prerequisite for continued economic growth in our march to realise Vision 2020. Overtures made by Dato’ Sri Najib to the Chinese Community may be read as an attempt to at least arrest the declining support among the Chinese community. There is no need for a majority support, a fairly substantial one should be adequate. It is obvious that he cannot offer more without eroding UMNO’s base in the Malay heartland. For the Chinese voters, they are likely to hold steadfastly to the Chinese Kiasu spirit. Whatever it means, they are likely to vote more wisely in the next 14th General Election.Will it be another worst "Chinese Tsunami".....yet to be seen!!!