13th General Election: In A Nutshell

“What else do the Chinese want?” screamed the banner headline in one of Malaysia’s most widely read. Malaysia, one of the region’s economic success stories and most remarkable multi-ethnic experiments, is now struggling with worrying divisions. The party that improved most at this election, the most bitterly fought since Malaysia’s independence, was neither the main ruling party, the UMNO, nor the opposition led by Anwar Ibrahim. It was the DAP, the opposition coalition’s Chinese party. It not only won more seats than Anwar’s party but trounced a candidate for the ruling BN coalition – of which UMNO is the biggest member – in the key state of Johor. Dato' Sri Najib, sworn in as prime minister on 7th May, recognised this as – in his own words – a “Chinese tsunami”. PM is right to be concerned. Malaysia’s ethnic Chinese have been disaffected by a system of pro-Malay affirmative action policies that not only hand Malays privileged access to the country’s economic spoils, but are crowding out Chinese children from the education system. They have apparently had enough. Making matters worse, Anwar has still not conceded the election. He says the poll was stolen, accusing the election commission of complicity in fraud. The accusations range from the use of indelible ink that could be washed off, to the padding of marginal seats in key states with voters flown in from other parts of Malaysia. The government has denied any impropriety and called such claims sour grapes. The 13th GE in the country’s history, was already going to be close. Anwar must accept the 13th GE results.....!!! Swaths of urban Malay voters peeled away from BN, worsening a gulf between the two that was first exposed at the last election in 2008. The election leaves Malaysia in the grip of a narrow win by BN, shorn of support from moderate Malays and Chinese. BN won 133 seat and Anwar’s side win 89 seats in parliament. Though Anwar won the popular vote, BN clinched the poll in the end after paving through the "Chinese tsunami", but that was largely due to the ballast of a loyal base in rural heartlands and a constituency system that favours the incumbent. This is not the sort of result that gives Dato' Sri Najib much of a mandate but a greater challenge to take Malaysia to the next level of economic development and lead it out of a “middle income” trap. The election leaves Malaysia in the grip of a narrow win, shorn of support from moderate Malays and Chinese, who alone make up a quarter of the population. It was Malaysia’s historic ability to combine the best of the Malays, Chinese and Indian populations in an uneasy but ultimately workable compromise that turned it into South East Asia’s second-largest economy. The immediate challenge for Dato' Sri Najib is to survive. This seems like a strange statement given that his side won. But UMNO was brutally unforgiving of Najib's predecessor and sacked him after presiding over the loss of Barisan’s two-thirds majority at the last election. The BN coalition will almost certainly not be able to rely on its rural heartlands for support next time. Malaysia is becoming more urban and its countryside will probably be drained of BN supporters over the next few years. UMNO may be an inward-looking party. But it needs to understand that the foreign investment community is watching this stage of the “Malaysian experiment” very carefully. Thus, BN must consolidate in outlining its strategy through coordinated and concerted effort for better result in the next general election. In a nutshell, for whatever it is, Dato' Sri Najib must be given a chance to push through his transformation agenda for the next five years.