13th General Election: An Assessment......!!!

Let’s talk about how the opposition- DAP, PAS, PKR can probably win the 13th General Election. Let’s begin by asking, will the PR lose its current 82 seats? Possible, but very unlikely. The seats which they lost when some people jumped ship, will become theirs again. We won’t see the likes of Zahrain, Zulkifli Noordin and his types in parliament again. DAP now has 28 seats in parliament. DAP has gained substantial ground with Chinese voters. Chinese voters identify more with DAP. By and large the Chinese do not require the intervention and involvement of the government to improve their wellbeing. They got to where they are now, largely by their own efforts and independence. They want to preserve and reinforce that independent streak. How best for them to do that? By staking their future in a party that best represents the independence streak. They don’t want a party perceived as easily compromised, intimidated or even bought over to represent them. DAP is their preferred choice. The Chinese are less dependent on the government and by government(BN). They need champions for other requirements and that they find in DAP. So the DAP will more or less pummel MCA to the ground. They will take most of the 15 seats the MCA won in the 2008 elections. At the very best, MCA can retain 3 seats. The worst case scenario is, MCA wins nothing. The DAP will increase its seats by another 12 in Semenanjung. It gobbles up most of the seats now held by MCA. Why will DAP win over the MCA? The Chinese believe MCA has sold them out. Not necessarily by kowtowing to big brother UMNO over many issues, but by retreating from representing the indomitable spirit of the Chinese. MCA has lost its mandate. That’s how DAP is winning the Chinese over-where MCA failed. On a more simplistic reasoning, the Chinese who have traditionally supported MCA are asking, how come almost all our Chinese MCA leaders are being persecuted and prosecuted by the Courts once they leave office? How come UMNO leaders who do or are alleged to be doing the same things are not? They know Malay leaders stole and swindled more. What about the DAP in Sarawak? Generally speaking, the urban seats will be taken up by the DAP. That will be another 8 or 9 seats for the DAP. The seats held currently by SUPP will end up in DAP’s hands. The DAP will get around 20 seats more than they got in 2008. This time around, DAP will be in parliament with probably 46-48 seats. It’s difficult to dislodge PAS from where they are now. Has any elected PAS rep jumped ship? This means, PAS has been careful to select leaders on the basis of each having convictions and intense belief. It will likely do the same thing for the 13th GE. How can PAS win? It’s difficult for its opponent to dislodge PAS in its traditional role as champions for Islam and serving as the emotional anchor for conservative Malays. It will retain the many seats it now has in Kelantan. It will gain more seats in Terengganu which is expected to go back to PAS this time around. Some of the seats in Kedah for example, currently held by MCA and UMNO will be won by PAS. The seat now occupied by MCA’s Chor will be lost to PAS. PAS can win because it’s organized and is motivated by convictions. They are not out for personal glory and gratification. They have got a number of secular liberals in the party who can attract younger Malay voters. They will attract the serious thinkers among the younger Malay crowd who are not included in the tweeting about football or about Elton John variety. PAS currently has 23 seats in parliament. It will secure a large number in Terengganu, maybe 1 seat in Pahang, 3 in Kedah. They will increase their seats by another 7-8. PAS will enter the next parliament with around 30-31 seats. What about PKR?....... PKR is the weak link in PR. Let’s not forget it won 31 seats in the 2008 elections. Those who jumped ship are either ex UMNO members and those who were selected on the basis of urgency and expedience. The ‘fluid’ candidates will be removed this time around, and it is likely that PKR will select candidates with firmer constitution. PKR will secure a number of seats in Sarawak taking away seats from SPDP and PRS. Baru Bian will spearhead PKR’s drive in Sarawak. PKR will still enter parliament with around 33-35 seats. Let’s take the worst case scenario. DAP(46), PAS(30) and PKR(33). The opposition has 109 seats. They are short of 3 seats to secure the simple majority. We haven’t included Sabah in our discussion. With the disenchantment towards Chief Minister, it’s unlikely that UMNO Sabah can retain all its seats it currently has. The opposition will probably gain around 6 seats outright. So, Sabah is the powder keg. It’s likely to blow in the face of BN. the non-Malay indigenous people of Sabah are likely to pressure their parties to abandon BN. they have had numerous UMNO leaders leading them in the past, all they got was continued marginalization. They don’t see development in their areas. They don’t see electricity and roads and clean water after years of BN rule. It’s therefore possible to see 8-10 seats migrating to PR’s camp. We can say that around 14-16 seats from Sabah alone are PR inclined. The likely assessment about the coming 13th GE,PR 118-124 seats and UMNO/BN 98-104 seats.BN is without doubt is facing an uphill task and must continue to considate their campaigning effort especially MCA and Gerakan in order to offset this assessment for continued power at Putrajaya.